Sat, Dec 16, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 113 | 08 | 02 | 230 |
| WSH | 07 | 08 | 211 | 11 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:01ANADerek GrantAssists: Logan Shaw, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 7:36ANAJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 3:05WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 7:27WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 1:58WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: John Carlson · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:16ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:16WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:31WSHAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Wagner – Kase11:58
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Grant – Shaw – Rasmussen7:52
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Henrique – Rakell13:52
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Silfverberg – Roy16:08
xG 0.36–2.22 (14%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm15:29
xG 0.88–0.73 (55%)attempts 22–9goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Montour16:45
xG 0.44–0.90 (33%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler18:02
xG 0.36–1.58 (19%)attempts 12–24goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson17:08
xG 1.69–0.17 (91%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson6:16
xG 0.69–0.49 (58%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky10:48
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Kuznetsov – Vrana15:11
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov23:00
xG 1.76–0.70 (71%)attempts 21–20goals 2–1
- Carlson – Djoos16:24
xG 1.09–0.42 (72%)attempts 27–15goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bowey13:16
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).