Sat, Dec 16, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 2, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 216 | 06 | 228 |
| CGY | 012 | 09 | 011 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:17NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–0
- P2 19:22NSHKevin FialaAssists: Kyle Turris, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:05CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:53NSHAnthony Bitetto: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:40NSHAustin Watson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:22CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P2 10:11NSHAustin Watson: Interference5 min
- P2 10:11CGYTroy Brouwer: Instigator2 min
- P2 10:11CGYTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:11NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:11CGYTroy Brouwer: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:11NSHAustin Watson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 12:00NSHAnthony Bitetto: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:41CGYBrett Kulak: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:56NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Jankowski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala9:03
xG 1.41–0.30 (83%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Watson – Sissons2:53
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Aberg – Forsberg7:15
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Johansen – Arvidsson8:17
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Bitetto9:12
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm13:52
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban12:07
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Stajan – Brouwer5:19
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan7:21
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett6:59
xG 0.16–0.47 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:40
xG 0.36–0.70 (34%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton13:59
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie13:22
xG 0.33–0.35 (48%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Kulak8:12
xG 0.23–0.81 (22%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).