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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 17, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Calgary Flames 6, Vancouver Canucks 1

Away

Calgary Flames

6

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.

VAN winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY19410119638
VAN070614117

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:45CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Sam Bennett, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:56CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P2 15:47CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Sam Bennett, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
  4. P2 18:47CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Matt Stajan, Troy Brouwer · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–0
  5. P2 19:47CGYSam BennettAssists: Travis Hamonic, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–0
  6. P3 6:48VANMarkus GranlundPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–1
  7. P3 11:09CGYMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–1
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 13:04CGYDavid Rittich: Throwing equipment2 min
  2. P1 14:34VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 0:00CGYTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 2:13VANJake Virtanen: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 2:53CGYMicheal Ferland: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 13:09CGYBrett Kulak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 13:09VANJake Virtanen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 16:39CGYJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
  9. P3 1:16VANAlex Biega: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 3:39VANJake Virtanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P3 5:30CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min · PPG
  12. P3 9:15VANNic Dowd: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  13. P3 12:01CGYMichael Frolik: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 12:01VANSam Gagner: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
46% to win54% to win
← CGY attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Monahan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYVAN
38Shots on goal17
4.0Expected goals2.1
69Shot attempts52
32Faceoffs won28
5Power plays5
14Penalty minutes14
15Hits23
20Blocked shots17
5Giveaways12
6Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestJankowski – Hathaway – Bennett5:14

    xG 0.67–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0

  2. Jagr – Stajan – Brouwer8:40

    xG 0.57–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0

  3. Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan6:28

    xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0

  4. Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:01

    xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHamonic – Brodie14:17

    xG 0.74–0.24 (76%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0

  2. Stone – Kulak11:40

    xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0

  3. Giordano – Hamilton9:46

    xG 0.26–0.16 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestEriksson – Gagner – Boeser4:05

    xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0

  2. Dowd – Granlund – Gaunce7:28

    xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

  3. Sedin – Sedin – Vanek7:56

    xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

  4. Gagner – Virtanen – Goldobin2:07

    xG 0.01–0.07 (17%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Edler – Stecher4:11

    xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0

  2. Biega – Del Zotto11:55

    xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0

  3. Pouliot – Hutton2:29

    xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.1 xGCGY 4.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1075 of 1271 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.

VAN winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).