Sun, Dec 17, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Florida Panthers 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 07 | 02 | 218 |
| VGK | 211 | 09 | 320 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58FLARadim VrbataPPAssists: Denis Malgin, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 5:13FLAMike MathesonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 6:39VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 17:20VGKColin MillerAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, James Neal · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 11:40VGKErik HaulaGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Colin Miller · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 17:50VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Reilly Smith, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.62 xG2–4
- P3 19:32VGKJames NealENAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:35VGKDavid Perron: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:55VGKColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:31FLAMicheal Haley: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:13FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:32FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:51FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:54VGKColin Miller: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Vrbata – McGinn – McCann8:13
xG 0.11–0.23 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Trocheck – Malgin9:54
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley3:43
xG 0.03–0.34 (9%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Huberdeau – Barkov10:38
xG 0.37–0.77 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Matheson15:57
xG 0.37–0.64 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
- Petrovic – McCoshen10:17
xG 0.15–0.57 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:39
xG 0.46–1.06 (30%)attempts 13–24goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:22
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch8:01
xG 0.47–0.29 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula11:10
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Lindberg – Bellemare – Nosek7:36
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt16:18
xG 1.26–0.43 (74%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Engelland – Theodore15:39
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Merrill – Miller12:06
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).