Mon, Dec 18, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Los Angeles Kings 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 28 | 011 | 26 | 425 |
| PHI | 19 | 013 | 015 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Torrey Mitchell · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 16:46LAKTrevor LewisGWGAssists: Nicholas Shore, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 18:04PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:48LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 15:31LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Nicholas Shore · Snap, 0.21 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:43PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P1 12:46LAKOscar Fantenberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:49LAKTorrey Mitchell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:33LAKDerek Forbort: Interference2 min
- P2 14:37LAKTanner Pearson: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:37PHINolan Patrick: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:42LAKAdrian Kempe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:13LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:10PHIMichael Raffl: Interference2 min
- P3 19:53LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Toffoli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Shore – Iafallo10:08
xG 0.36–0.16 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar8:51
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Andreoff – Brodzinski6:08
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe11:02
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty12:27
xG 0.78–0.39 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez3:29
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort5:36
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Voracek – Raffl11:03
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Weise – Laughton – Leier2:08
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Laughton – Leier – Konecny5:30
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Couturier11:07
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Sanheim12:20
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg9:02
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Hagg – Provorov2:47
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).