Mon, Dec 18, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 3, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 16 | 17 | 18 | 321 |
| EDM | 28 | 110 | 211 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.60 xG1–0
- P1 14:42EDMMark LetestuAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 18:51EDMRyan StromeAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 6:36EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Drake Caggiula, Patrick Maroon · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 8:32SJSTomas HertlAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 8:23EDMPatrick MaroonGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 11:58SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Justin Braun, Melker Karlsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 19:52EDMRyan StromeENAssists: Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:43SJSKevin Labanc: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:24EDMNathan Walker: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:40SJSTomas Hertl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:37EDMKris Russell: Holding2 min
- P2 13:15SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:46EDMRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Tierney – Meier13:42
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Sorensen – Hertl – Labanc3:05
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sorensen – Hertl – Karlsson3:48
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Ward – Sorensen – O'Regan2:24
xG 0.00–0.08 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic2:18
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Heed – DeMelo10:57
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Burns – Dillon16:30
xG 0.46–0.89 (34%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula10:43
xG 0.86–0.16 (84%)attempts 14–3goals 2–1
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:14
xG 1.03–0.58 (64%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Strome – Khaira – Draisaitl10:05
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Walker5:57
xG 0.11–0.34 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Larsson15:08
xG 0.77–0.39 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Benning13:19
xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Larsson – Nurse3:55
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).