Tue, Dec 19, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 3, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 114 | 29 | 333 |
| BUF | 017 | 09 | 010 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:14BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 18:09BOSTim SchallerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–0
- P3 19:29BOSDavid BackesENAssists: Riley Nash, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:48BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:48BUFZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:30BOSPatrice Bergeron: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:33BUFEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:32BUFEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Nash – Heinen11:32
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Spooner – Bjork – DeBrusk8:00
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari12:03
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:32
xG 0.37–0.61 (38%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy17:13
xG 0.99–0.58 (63%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug2:08
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo13:51
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJosefson – Nolan – Reinhart3:22
xG 0.23–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Rodrigues3:57
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nolan – Girgensons – Rodrigues2:23
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Josefson – Nolan – Rodrigues2:58
xG 0.03–0.03 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Ristolainen17:20
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 21–21goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Beaulieu13:18
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- McCabe – Antipin14:51
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).