Tue, Dec 19, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Anaheim Ducks 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 016 | 015 | 19 | 140 |
| NYR | 110 | 212 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:14NYRPaul CareyAssists: David Desharnais, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 0:38NYRKevin HayesGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 13:00NYRPaul CareyAssists: David Desharnais, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 14:43ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 16:37NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:25ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:25NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:15ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:59NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Roy – Kase4:03
xG 0.22–0.01 (98%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Grant – Wagner – Shaw10:24
xG 0.76–0.80 (49%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Henrique – Silfverberg10:16
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Roy5:59
xG 0.17–0.48 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:11
xG 0.86–0.39 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Fowler15:55
xG 1.00–0.63 (61%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Fowler – Welinski2:48
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Carey – Vesey12:17
xG 0.95–0.37 (72%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:17
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Fast14:08
xG 0.81–0.46 (64%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Miller12:07
xG 0.63–0.65 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Holden14:13
xG 0.92–0.50 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei14:36
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Smith15:38
xG 0.76–1.08 (41%)attempts 12–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).