Tue, Dec 19, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 7, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 314 | 39 | 732 |
| VAN | 116 | 29 | 214 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37VANThomas VanekPPAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 16:39MTLDaniel CarrPPAssists: David Schlemko, Charles Hudon · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 7:18MTLNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Byron Froese, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 14:00VANThomas VanekAssists: Alex Biega, Loui Eriksson · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:05MTLNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Daniel Carr, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 17:39VANDaniel SedinAssists: Thomas Vanek, Erik Gudbranson · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 19:13MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 1:37MTLPaul ByronAssists: Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 13:29VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 17:27MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–4
- P3 18:59VANThomas VanekAssists: Brock Boeser, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–5
- P3 19:49MTLPhillip DanaultENAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.73 xG7–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:18MTLJakub Jerabek: Holding2 min
- P1 9:39MTLJoe Morrow: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:45VANThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:09VANAlex Biega: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:45VANAlex Biega: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:37MTLByron Froese: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Pacioretty – Drouin11:53
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – Carr10:19
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Shaw – Danault – Galchenyuk9:04
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon11:11
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Benn15:10
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Morrow – Jerabek12:27
xG 0.67–0.63 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Petry – Alzner17:50
xG 0.63–0.85 (42%)attempts 13–21goals 3–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Virtanen4:58
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Dowd – Gaunce – Virtanen3:55
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Granlund – Gaunce7:04
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson3:41
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pouliot13:54
xG 0.75–0.51 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Biega – Del Zotto15:38
xG 0.92–0.72 (56%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Edler – Stecher15:36
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).