Thu, Dec 21, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Anaheim Ducks 5, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 211 | 115 | 113 | 11 | 540 |
| NYI | 05 | 29 | 210 | 02 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:09ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:54ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Josh Manson, Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 5:39NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 12:36ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 16:59NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 5:44NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 7:52NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Jordan Eberle, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 18:45ANARickard RakellAssists: Brandon Montour, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–4
- OT 4:03ANAHampus LindholmGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Ondrej Kase · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 5:05ANAKevin Roy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:15ANAKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:38ANANick Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:38NYIJaroslav Halak: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:41NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:14ANAKevin Roy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:42NYIAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Henrique – Silfverberg11:29
xG 0.78–0.28 (74%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase7:27
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Grant – Wagner – Shaw7:08
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Roy11:21
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Fowler15:53
xG 1.34–0.47 (74%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Montour13:14
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm15:47
xG 0.82–0.69 (55%)attempts 14–18goals 2–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Eberle – Barzal13:17
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Nelson5:08
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bernier – Cizikas – Prince4:18
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas5:44
xG 0.11–0.46 (19%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech17:55
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Hickey – Pulock12:57
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:41
xG 0.51–1.77 (23%)attempts 19–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).