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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 21, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.

PIT winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CBJ0811118051232
PIT015015210012341

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:09CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Artemi Panarin, Gabriel Carlsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P3 2:25PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P3 15:03PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P3 16:14CBJArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Seth Jones, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
  2. 2. CBJ Cam Atkinson scored
  3. 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
  4. 4. CBJ Artemi Panarin stopped
  5. 5. PIT Phil Kessel stopped
  6. 6. CBJ Jack Johnson stopped
  7. 7. PIT Kris Letang scored
  8. 8. CBJ Oliver Bjorkstrand stopped
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 15:27PITRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 15:27CBJLukas Sedlak: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:27CBJLukas Sedlak: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 18:26PITSidney Crosby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P2 9:04PITPatric Hornqvist: Elbowing2 min
  6. P2 12:55CBJSeth Jones: Interference2 min
  7. P2 19:31CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:31PITEvgeni Malkin: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 0:00CBJSeth Jones: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 0:00PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 0:00CBJSeth Jones: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 0:00CBJBoone Jenner: Cross checking5 min
  13. P2 0:00CBJBoone Jenner: Game misconduct10 min
  14. P2 0:00PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
  15. P2 0:00PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 9:35PITConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
  17. P3 14:20CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min · PPG
  18. P3 14:20PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  19. P3 14:46CBJArtemi Panarin: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
  20. P3 15:51PITConor Sheary: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
46% to win54% to win
← CBJ attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Dubois
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJPIT
32Shots on goal41
2.9Expected goals4.1
54Shot attempts76
42Faceoffs won32
4Power plays5
37Penalty minutes26
29Hits33
14Blocked shots10
3Giveaways9
8Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. Foligno – Calvert – Bjorkstrand9:00

    xG 0.11–0.40 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0

  2. Atkinson – Jenner – Wennberg8:13

    xG 0.17–0.50 (26%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0

  3. Anderson – Panarin – Dubois10:26

    xG 0.48–0.84 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. Harrington – Carlsson8:32

    xG 0.25–0.49 (33%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0

  2. Jones – Nutivaara14:53

    xG 0.48–0.95 (33%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0

  3. Johnson – Savard15:13

    xG 0.28–1.05 (21%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestKessel – Sheahan – Sheary3:47

    xG 0.55–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  2. Crosby – Rust – Guentzel7:28

    xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0

  3. Malkin – Kessel – Sheary6:53

    xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0

  4. Reaves – Rust – Rowney2:50

    xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestLetang – Dumoulin13:49

    xG 1.11–0.53 (68%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1

  2. Maatta – Ruhwedel10:23

    xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0

  3. Hunwick – Oleksiak8:54

    xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 4.1 xGCBJ 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #299 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.11 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.

PIT winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).