Thu, Dec 21, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 415 | 07 | 010 | 432 |
| NSH | 17 | 012 | 010 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37CARDerek RyanPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 3:11CARElias LindholmGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 4:47CARNoah HanifinPPAssists: Justin Williams, Derek Ryan · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P1 6:29CARVictor RaskAssists: Noah Hanifin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.01 xG4–0
- P1 15:33NSHKevin FialaAssists: P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:30NSHNick Bonino: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:53NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:20NSHYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:01CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:08NSHAustin Watson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:34CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:38CARBrett Pesce: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:40NSHScott Hartnell: Holding2 min
- P3 5:47CARBrock McGinn: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:50NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:14NSHScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Williams – McGinn – Ryan9:17
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm7:17
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 2–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe7:11
xG 0.11–0.18 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho10:19
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Dahlbeck13:37
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin9:48
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce15:46
xG 0.14–0.80 (15%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:34
xG 0.70–0.05 (93%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Turris – Fiala8:52
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons5:20
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Aberg7:22
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Subban15:12
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin10:28
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm15:28
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).