Thu, Dec 21, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 015 | 210 | 236 |
| EDM | 05 | 014 | 316 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 9:30STLTage ThompsonAssists: Colton Parayko, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 10:08EDMMichael CammalleriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 13:22STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 16:19EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 19:10EDMDrake CaggiulaGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:12STLScottie Upshall: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:11EDMMatt Benning: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:48EDMPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:48STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:10STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Thompson10:42
xG 0.84–0.59 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Sobotka – Berglund – Paajarvi7:38
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Berglund – Schenn – Tarasenko3:00
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak7:30
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Schmaltz7:29
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn17:05
xG 1.09–1.00 (52%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson2:00
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula13:46
xG 0.73–0.66 (52%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:47
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Strome – Khaira – Draisaitl10:13
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Cammalleri – Letestu – Kassian7:35
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning11:42
xG 0.70–0.32 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Russell – Nurse15:38
xG 1.01–0.92 (52%)attempts 18–20goals 2–0
- Larsson – Nurse3:14
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).