Fri, Dec 22, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 2, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 113 | 09 | 231 |
| FLA | 111 | 010 | 313 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:09MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:53FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Denis Malgin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 10:34MINDaniel WinnikUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 2:00FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 11:14FLAConnor BrickleyGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 19:54FLAJonathan HuberdeauENAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:16MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:36MINCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:26FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:02FLAMacKenzie Weegar: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:55FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:55MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:27FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:50MINChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:11FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:16FLAVincent Trocheck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Stewart – Eriksson Ek4:23
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund10:56
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Foligno3:37
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Winnik – Coyle – Eriksson Ek2:10
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Prosser – Reilly7:47
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin13:26
xG 0.86–0.94 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 1–2
- Suter – Dumba14:59
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Huberdeau – Barkov11:24
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley4:22
xG 0.09–0.00 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Brickley – McCann4:48
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Trocheck – Malgin11:58
xG 0.14–0.63 (19%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad17:19
xG 1.15–0.76 (60%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Matheson11:21
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Weegar9:51
xG 0.09–0.36 (19%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).