Sat, Dec 23, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Winnipeg Jets 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 112 | 010 | 118 | 240 |
| NYI | 312 | 07 | 210 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 2:20NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Jordan Eberle, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 13:42WPGTucker PoolmanAssists: Ben Chiarot, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 19:24NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 11:22NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Jordan Eberle, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.36 xG1–4
- P3 15:01NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 18:24WPGAdam LowryAssists: Kyle Connor, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:16WPGBrandon Tanev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:39WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:08NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:09WPGMatt Hendricks: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:51NYIBrock Nelson: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:13NYIScott Mayfield: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele10:26
xG 0.97–0.21 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Connor4:10
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev7:18
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Copp – Tanev3:12
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey17:55
xG 1.09–0.71 (61%)attempts 20–10goals 0–2
- Myers – Kulikov15:28
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Poolman14:08
xG 0.74–1.05 (41%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Eberle – Barzal11:20
xG 0.83–0.52 (62%)attempts 12–15goals 3–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas9:08
xG 0.40–0.59 (41%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Nelson – Prince – Beauvillier10:59
xG 0.32–0.61 (34%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:06
xG 0.13–0.58 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock13:55
xG 1.14–0.84 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy16:15
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech15:46
xG 0.55–0.83 (40%)attempts 10–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).