Sat, Dec 23, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Minnesota Wild 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 07 | 05 | 022 |
| TBL | 012 | 08 | 311 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 17:18TBLDan GirardiGWGAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 18:10TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Jake Dotchin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 19:07TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Dan Girardi · Backhand, 0.73 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:38MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P1 11:29MINRyan Suter: Holding2 min
- P1 13:39TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:08TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min
- P2 0:42TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min
- P2 4:19TBLAnton Stralman: Holding2 min
- P2 5:23MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P2 12:27TBLChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:56MINDaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:11MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:03MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P3 13:28TBLMikhail Sergachev: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Coyle – Eriksson Ek9:18
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Foligno – Granlund7:22
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Mitchell3:25
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Stewart – Zucker7:29
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Brodin10:43
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Prosser – Reilly5:13
xG 0.01–0.15 (9%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba15:05
xG 0.14–0.77 (15%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Point8:07
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 11–1goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Brown – Paquette6:27
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Conacher – Gourde5:42
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov9:55
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin11:52
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Coburn – Girardi6:48
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Stralman – Sergachev9:40
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).