Sat, Dec 23, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 26 | 08 | 222 |
| CAR | 16 | 318 | 014 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33CARSebastian AhoAssists: Brett Pesce, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:53CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen · Deflected, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 2:44BUFNathan BeaulieuAssists: Johan Larsson, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 4:35CARJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 11:16CARJustin FaulkAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 13:41BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:18CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:06BUFEvander Kane: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:29BUFJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:59CARMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min
- P3 11:24BUFZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:19BUFNathan Beaulieu: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Larsson3:20
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Josefson – Nolan2:54
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel12:42
xG 0.73–0.82 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Nolan – Wilson – Rodrigues4:58
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Beaulieu2:32
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Gorges – Beaulieu3:59
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – McCabe9:15
xG 0.36–0.55 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho11:56
xG 0.88–0.21 (81%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Williams – McGinn – Ryan11:11
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe7:27
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm9:47
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Dahlbeck12:29
xG 1.28–0.47 (73%)attempts 22–9goals 1–1
- Slavin – Pesce14:24
xG 0.92–0.65 (58%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin11:37
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).