Sat, Dec 23, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 112 | 07 | 130 |
| EDM | 212 | 110 | 113 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:49EDMRyan StromeAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 15:50EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 4:21EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 12:55MTLAndrew ShawPPAssists: Paul Byron, Joe Morrow · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 18:02EDMJujhar KhairaENAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:16MTLJoe Morrow: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:45MTLJonathan Drouin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:53EDMRyan Strome: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:21EDMAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P3 12:36MTLKarl Alzner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Pacioretty – Drouin7:05
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Drouin5:54
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – Carr11:45
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Lehkonen3:44
xG 0.06–0.28 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Alzner8:31
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Petry – Morrow7:55
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Alzner – Benn6:45
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Khaira – Draisaitl8:58
xG 0.94–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula12:38
xG 0.87–0.40 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Letestu – Kassian8:49
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:51
xG 0.32–0.45 (41%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Larsson13:42
xG 1.18–0.27 (81%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse16:42
xG 0.83–0.27 (76%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Benning – Nurse2:04
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).