Sat, Dec 23, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Washington Capitals 0, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 07 | 010 | 026 |
| VGK | 317 | 05 | 06 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37VGKAlex TuchGWGAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 7:39VGKOscar LindbergAssists: Tomas Nosek · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 14:55VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.10 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:06VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:24VGKCody Eakin: Interference2 min
- P2 16:42WSHBrett Connolly: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:24WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P3 2:10VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P3 19:14VGKCody Eakin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom3:59
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Beagle – Wilson – Stephenson3:55
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Smith-Pelly2:03
xG 0.07–0.00 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly – Vrana2:02
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Orlov20:24
xG 0.58–0.79 (43%)attempts 21–18goals 0–0
- Carlson – Djoos12:10
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
- Orpik – Bowey12:42
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Leipsic – Tuch11:21
xG 0.85–0.20 (81%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:15
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula9:25
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Bellemare – Nosek8:22
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller14:32
xG 0.91–0.22 (81%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Engelland – Theodore13:21
xG 0.64–0.42 (61%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt14:39
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).