Wed, Dec 27, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 114 | 011 | 132 |
| NJD | 213 | 010 | 19 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:16NJDNico HischierAssists: Steven Santini, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:22NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 8:09DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:37NJDSami VatanenENAssists: Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.46 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:50NJDNico Hischier: Holding2 min
- P2 10:35NJDNico Hischier: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:45NJDNico Hischier: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:48NJDMarcus Johansson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:41NJDMiles Wood: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:04DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:51DETTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Helm – Bertuzzi10:10
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha7:52
xG 0.17–0.11 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Booth – Frk – Athanasiou3:04
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin7:53
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Daley2:12
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green5:15
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Jensen5:05
xG 0.14–0.10 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Johansson – Palmieri9:38
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Noesen – Wood – Zacha4:32
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier10:55
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Gibbons – Coleman – Noesen2:13
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson3:51
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Vatanen13:03
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Severson – Butcher9:27
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).