Wed, Dec 27, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 111 | 114 | 01 | 237 |
| NYI | 014 | 112 | 17 | 11 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:41NYIJason ChimeraAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 9:43BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Jack Eichel, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P3 11:33BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 18:51NYIJosh BaileyAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 1:08NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:09BUFJustin Falk: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:51NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:00NYIJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P2 13:00BUFMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:02NYIAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:40NYIDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJosefson – Nolan – Larsson9:02
xG 0.36–0.07 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel11:43
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – Rodrigues8:16
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Kane10:28
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Beaulieu10:48
xG 0.63–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Bogosian – McCabe15:31
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen17:08
xG 0.90–0.76 (54%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal11:58
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nelson – Prince – Beauvillier6:13
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:33
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas7:44
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech12:19
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Hickey13:45
xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy16:00
xG 0.34–0.56 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).