Wed, Dec 27, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 29 | 17 | 115 | 02 | 0 | 433 |
| PIT | 010 | 116 | 39 | 02 | 2 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06CBJSonny MilanoAssists: Seth Jones, Markus Nutivaara · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 14:34CBJBoone JennerAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 5:57PITConor ShearyAssists: Bryan Rust, Riley Sheahan · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:49CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Matt Calvert, David Savard · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 3:34PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 10:02CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Josh Anderson, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–2
- P3 14:24PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–3
- P3 18:20PITJake GuentzelAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 2. CBJ Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. CBJ Artemi Panarin stopped
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:18CBJMarkus Nutivaara: Interference2 min
- P2 12:37PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P2 17:38CBJMarkus Nutivaara: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:38PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:42CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:17CBJSeth Jones: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:37PITJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSchroeder – Motte – Hannikainen6:25
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Anderson – Panarin – Dubois14:12
xG 0.74–0.51 (60%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Bjorkstrand12:08
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Calvert – Sedlak – Milano6:24
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Nutivaara19:56
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 21–11goals 2–1
- Harrington – Carlsson9:45
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard15:20
xG 0.73–0.88 (45%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Sheary6:13
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin8:33
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Sheahan – Rust3:48
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Sheahan – Sheary2:18
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Dumoulin14:55
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel9:13
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Oleksiak13:23
xG 0.51–0.82 (38%)attempts 16–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).