Wed, Dec 27, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 113 | 05 | 124 |
| CAR | 116 | 08 | 212 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:19MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 9:15CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 18:36CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:17MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Elbowing2 min
- P2 13:07MTLAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:25CARKlas Dahlbeck: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:21MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:46CARDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Hudon – Carr8:02
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Shaw – Danault – Galchenyuk12:32
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Lehkonen9:43
xG 0.08–0.40 (17%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Byron – Pacioretty – Drouin12:00
xG 0.29–0.73 (29%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLernout – Jerabek14:05
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner15:59
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Benn – Morrow13:37
xG 0.23–0.76 (23%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho11:27
xG 1.01–0.29 (77%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Lindholm – Ryan3:02
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Rask – McGinn3:22
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe8:20
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Dahlbeck14:58
xG 0.51–0.39 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce18:50
xG 0.76–0.66 (54%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin13:05
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).