Wed, Dec 27, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 2, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 112 | 07 | 226 |
| STL | 013 | 09 | 18 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:37NSHCraig SmithAssists: Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 16:49NSHCalle JarnkrokGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Irwin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 13:37STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:30STLScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
- P1 10:05STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:05NSHScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:37NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:22STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:55STLBrayden Schenn: Interference2 min
- P3 7:58STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:58NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala9:46
xG 1.11–0.21 (84%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons7:04
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Aberg – Forsberg7:42
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Johansen – Arvidsson6:38
xG 0.10–0.63 (13%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm16:56
xG 1.09–0.67 (62%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Emelin – Subban14:49
xG 0.41–0.59 (41%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Weber – Irwin10:44
xG 0.31–0.82 (28%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Brodziak – Jaskin6:16
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Berglund – Schenn – Tarasenko11:57
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Paajarvi – Sundqvist6:45
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Steen – Stastny – Thompson12:47
xG 0.52–0.81 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson17:15
xG 1.27–0.41 (76%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn7:24
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Dunn2:18
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).