Wed, Dec 27, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 19 | 06 | 226 |
| MIN | 110 | 210 | 111 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:37DALTyler SeguinAssists: Esa Lindell, Devin Shore · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:19MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Charlie Coyle, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 5:12MINEric StaalAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:43DALMattias JanmarkPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
- P2 13:08MINMikael GranlundPPGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
- P3 19:15MINJason ZuckerENAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:30MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P2 10:33MINDaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58DALDevin Shore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:26MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:04DALMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:21MINMikko Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:13DALBen Bishop: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Ritchie – Elie7:20
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Shore12:10
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa10:12
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Radulov – Hanzal – Janmark11:50
xG 0.30–0.65 (32%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Klingberg – Lindell15:30
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Johns – Honka10:50
xG 0.14–0.30 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn16:05
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Ennis – Coyle12:03
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Winnik – Stewart – Eriksson Ek9:46
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:32
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Cullen – Foligno – Mitchell9:33
xG 0.01–0.21 (5%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin5:34
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon11:38
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba8:41
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).