Wed, Dec 27, 2017·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 19 | 06 | 325 |
| WPG | 210 | 218 | 011 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17EDMLeon DraisaitlSHAssists: Connor McDavid, Brandon Davidson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 8:12WPGBryan LittleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 14:44WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Matt Hendricks, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 16:07EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Kris Russell, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 0:54WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 9:48WPGJoel ArmiaGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.26 xG2–4
- P2 10:35EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Ryan Strome, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:07EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:08EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P3 5:08EDMJujhar Khaira: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:49EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:53WPGKyle Connor: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi12:52
xG 0.89–0.47 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Strome – Khaira – Draisaitl9:33
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula9:39
xG 0.60–0.62 (49%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Letestu – Kassian5:18
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning14:09
xG 0.82–0.62 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Russell – Nurse14:00
xG 0.60–0.76 (44%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Davidson – Larsson15:10
xG 0.15–1.21 (11%)attempts 8–23goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Perreault – Armia4:37
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 2–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev11:34
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Perreault – Armia2:07
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine10:37
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Poolman9:29
xG 1.08–0.46 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Myers – Morrissey2:18
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov15:46
xG 0.47–0.50 (48%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).