Thu, Dec 28, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 05 | 010 | 216 | 231 |
| FLA | 113 | 26 | 08 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43FLAJared McCannAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:19FLADerek MacKenzieSHAssists: Colton Sceviour · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 13:52FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 12:28PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Travis Konecny, Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:58PHISean CouturierAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:36PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min
- P1 1:15PHIBrian Elliott: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:44FLAAlexander Petrovic: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:14FLAMike Matheson: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:14PHIAndrew MacDonald: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:30PHINolan Patrick: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:52PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:43FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:31FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:31PHIMichael Raffl: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:31FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:52FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier7:28
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal6:24
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Weal – Laughton – Leier2:06
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weise3:45
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg10:43
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Sanheim2:21
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov13:01
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley4:14
xG 0.13–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McGinn – Brickley – McCann6:57
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Huberdeau – Barkov7:51
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Trocheck – Malgin10:02
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson11:25
xG 0.47–0.21 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Weegar12:49
xG 0.06–0.32 (16%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad13:40
xG 0.34–0.79 (30%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).