Thu, Dec 28, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 115 | 112 | 13 | 339 |
| LAK | 111 | 03 | 19 | 05 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Derek Forbort, Drew Doughty · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 18:34VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Colin Miller, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 11:10VGKBrendan LeipsicAssists: Alex Tuch, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 15:27LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Jake Muzzin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 3:30VGKDavid PerronGWGAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:02LAKKurtis MacDermid: Interference2 min
- P1 4:46LAKDustin Brown: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:46VGKDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P2 9:21LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00LAKJonathan Quick: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:40LAKDrew Doughty: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:38LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min
- P3 12:50VGKDavid Perron: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kempe won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:35
xG 1.18–0.16 (88%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch10:48
xG 0.66–0.28 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Lindberg – Bellemare – Nosek8:01
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Neal – Perron – Haula10:37
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller11:25
xG 1.12–0.19 (85%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- McNabb – Schmidt16:31
xG 1.06–0.52 (67%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Engelland – Theodore14:27
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Lewis – Shore4:38
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Toffoli – Kempe2:25
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Pearson2:20
xG 0.03–0.12 (22%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Kempe – Iafallo7:09
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty10:22
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort7:10
xG 0.34–0.28 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Forbort – Gravel3:36
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).