Fri, Dec 29, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 23 | 112 | 13 | 429 |
| NJD | 112 | 213 | 011 | 02 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:35NJDMiles WoodAssists: Stefan Noesen, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.38 xG0–1
- P2 5:27BUFJacob JosefsonAssists: Jordan Nolan · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:34NJDMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 14:55NJDJohn MooreAssists: Brian Gibbons · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 18:05BUFJack EichelAssists: Jake McCabe, Zemgus Girgensons · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 11:04BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 2:37BUFRasmus RistolainenGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:23NJDStefan Noesen: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:44BUFJake McCabe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:12NJDBrian Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:05BUFZemgus Girgensons: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:40NJDSami Vatanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Josefson – Nolan – Larsson8:53
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel11:45
xG 0.28–0.51 (36%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Kane15:22
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – Rodrigues9:18
xG 0.18–1.22 (13%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Falk – Beaulieu11:13
xG 0.10–0.42 (20%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Bogosian – McCabe18:44
xG 0.43–0.75 (36%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen18:16
xG 0.46–1.52 (23%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Wood – Zacha11:08
xG 1.53–0.16 (91%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier12:30
xG 0.54–0.15 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Gibbons – Coleman9:10
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Zajac – Johansson – Palmieri12:50
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Butcher13:09
xG 1.66–0.34 (83%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Moore – Vatanen18:41
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Greene – Santini15:40
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).