Fri, Dec 29, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 37 | 18 | 425 |
| OTT | 09 | 38 | 211 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:15CBJSonny MilanoAssists: Boone Jenner, Markus Nutivaara · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 5:42OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:11CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:24CBJSonny MilanoAssists: Seth Jones · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 14:14OTTNick PaulAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 18:52OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Johnny Oduya · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 7:41OTTMark StoneAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–4
- P3 9:21OTTBobby RyanGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 19:28CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Josh Anderson, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:34OTTJohnny Oduya: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:38CBJArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:09OTTJohnny Oduya: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:14OTTBobby Ryan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:06OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:44OTTDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSchroeder – Motte – Hannikainen6:06
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Calvert – Sedlak – Motte4:40
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Bjorkstrand10:15
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Anderson – Panarin – Dubois12:55
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Nutivaara13:19
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski17:11
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 17–16goals 1–2
- Johnson – Harrington14:04
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 6–19goals 1–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone5:55
xG 0.62–0.05 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 2–1
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel10:51
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Paul3:07
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Brassard – Stone5:38
xG 0.04–0.15 (19%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci7:04
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson3:28
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
- Oduya – Karlsson10:39
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).