Fri, Dec 29, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 315 | 214 | 538 |
| TBL | 17 | 113 | 17 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:56PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 10:03PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 15:37TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 19:48PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 1:53PHIBrandon ManningGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 8:58TBLTyler JohnsonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:27PHIValtteri FilppulaENAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:08PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:45TBLCory Conacher: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:15PHIValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:49TBLAndrej Sustr: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:49TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:30TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:12TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:25TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:17PHIDale Weise: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Weise – Laughton9:07
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny8:44
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl11:03
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Patrick6:11
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas12:08
xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov14:05
xG 0.78–0.57 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hagg14:47
xG 0.26–0.63 (29%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Namestnikov4:53
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Conacher – Gourde7:56
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov7:47
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point6:17
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Sergachev12:10
xG 0.65–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Coburn – Koekkoek4:24
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr7:28
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).