Fri, Dec 29, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 018 | 116 | 243 |
| MIN | 218 | 111 | 19 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34MINMikael GranlundAssists: Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:16NSHP.K. SubbanAssists: Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 11:09MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 13:14MINMathew DumbaGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 2:52NSHKyle TurrisPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:09MINMikael GranlundENAssists: Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:44NSHKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:51NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:51MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:48NSHNick Bonino: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:51MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P2 6:10NSHViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:50MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:01MINDevan Dubnyk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:54NSHMiikka Salomaki: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:49NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala12:53
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 26–11goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson6:25
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Sissons – Arvidsson3:27
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Aberg – Sissons5:05
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm13:37
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Weber – Irwin10:28
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Emelin – Subban15:39
xG 0.61–1.03 (37%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Ennis – Coyle11:04
xG 1.12–0.50 (69%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund10:03
xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Cullen – Foligno – Mitchell6:51
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Winnik – Stewart – Eriksson Ek10:38
xG 0.14–0.61 (18%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:18
xG 1.15–0.56 (67%)attempts 18–25goals 1–1
- Prosser – Reilly9:55
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:15
xG 0.58–0.82 (41%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).