Fri, Dec 29, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 015 | 015 | 27 | 237 |
| DAL | 012 | 18 | 311 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:49DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Jason Spezza, Julius Honka · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 3:26STLVladimir TarasenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 4:31STLTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 15:10DALJamie BennUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 17:39DALAlexander RadulovPPGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:21DALAlexander RadulovENAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.72 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:34STLRobert Bortuzzo: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:41DALDevin Shore: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:04DALGreg Pateryn: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:28STLPatrik Berglund: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:28DALRadek Faksa: Head butting2 min
- P2 7:28DALRadek Faksa: Head butting2 min
- P2 13:11STLPaul Stastny: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:13STLDmitrij Jaskin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:55DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:22STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:22STLJoel Edmundson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Barbashev11:07
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak5:18
xG 0.13–0.29 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Steen – Stastny – Thompson11:19
xG 0.57–0.74 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Sobotka – Berglund – Jaskin9:46
xG 0.08–0.51 (14%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Bortuzzo2:32
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Parayko – Dunn2:43
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn11:31
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Smith – Elie4:50
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:01
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Spezza – Radulov – Janmark10:34
xG 0.44–0.27 (63%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa9:26
xG 0.15–0.18 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Honka8:55
xG 0.63–0.07 (91%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:12
xG 0.87–0.48 (65%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn14:39
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 19–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).