Fri, Dec 29, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 114 | 110 | 11 | 436 |
| EDM | 119 | 012 | 214 | 00 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:26EDMJesse PuljujarviPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 19:05CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Patrick Kane, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 14:06CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 8:28CHIJordan OesterlePPAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 17:41EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:05EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–3
- OT 0:50CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.29 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:00CHIMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:28CHIBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:41EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P2 13:38EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:19EDMLeon Draisaitl: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBouma – Wingels – Hayden9:25
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – DeBrincat – Kampf10:58
xG 0.64–0.63 (51%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Saad12:30
xG 0.67–0.82 (45%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Kane – Hartman – Schmaltz13:20
xG 1.03–1.56 (40%)attempts 14–24goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Oesterle2:01
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Franson – Kempny10:35
xG 1.04–0.88 (54%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Murphy17:56
xG 1.13–1.10 (51%)attempts 16–22goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:40
xG 1.55–0.68 (69%)attempts 22–10goals 0–1
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi7:00
xG 0.82–0.54 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Caggiula5:41
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Strome – Khaira – Draisaitl9:13
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom18:43
xG 1.19–0.75 (62%)attempts 24–17goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse16:26
xG 0.85–1.18 (42%)attempts 15–27goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning14:11
xG 0.80–1.34 (37%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).