Fri, Dec 29, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 1, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 111 | 07 | 123 |
| ANA | 120 | 08 | 113 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48ANACam FowlerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 11:55CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Matt Bartkowski, Mike Smith · Snap, 0.35 xG1–1
- P3 2:17ANARickard RakellPPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:09ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:37CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:39CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P1 11:37CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:37ANARyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:20CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:20ANABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:20CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:46CGYCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:34ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:10CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:27CGYSean Monahan: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:19ANARickard Rakell: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Hathaway – Bennett7:25
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan8:16
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Lazar5:12
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Backlund – Tkachuk10:18
xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Hamilton2:12
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton12:41
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Stone – Bartkowski10:07
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg2:02
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Kase9:46
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Shaw – Ritchie3:17
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Vermette – Wagner – Roy3:26
xG 0.08–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:07
xG 0.75–0.54 (58%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Montour7:48
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler13:08
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).