Sat, Dec 30, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 5, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 313 | 110 | 534 |
| OTT | 010 | 011 | 04 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13BOSRyan SpoonerPPGWGAssists: David Backes, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 3:29BOSNoel AcciariAssists: Torey Krug, Tim Schaller · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 5:38BOSRyan SpoonerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 13:39BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: David Backes, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–0
- P3 1:11BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:59OTTDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:42BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:42OTTBen Harpur: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:35OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:45BOSPatrice Bergeron: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:14OTTBen Harpur: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:52OTTCody Ceci: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Spooner – DeBrusk9:07
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari9:27
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Backes – Nash – Heinen12:48
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:20
xG 0.35–0.32 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk16:35
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo12:07
xG 0.57–0.39 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy16:33
xG 0.43–0.44 (50%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Pyatt – Pageau6:39
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene2:14
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Dzingel – Chlapik2:00
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Paul2:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Chabot7:57
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Harpur3:47
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Oduya – Karlsson7:35
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).