Sat, Dec 30, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 0, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 08 | 011 | 029 |
| NSH | 08 | 011 | 310 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:23NSHScott HartnellGWGAssists: Nick Bonino, Matt Irwin · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 7:50NSHP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 17:40NSHViktor ArvidssonENAssists: P.K. Subban, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.69 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:54NSHP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:51NSHColton Sissons: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:51MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P2 7:38MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:33MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P2 17:04MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:47NSHAustin Watson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:27MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund8:04
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Ennis – Coyle8:44
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Winnik – Stewart – Eriksson Ek6:06
xG 0.47–0.54 (47%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Foligno – Mitchell4:31
xG 0.01–0.12 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Olofsson12:32
xG 1.07–0.22 (83%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon15:04
xG 0.58–0.74 (44%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba15:12
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Bonino – Sissons7:04
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala10:57
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson11:46
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- McLeod – Watson – Gaudreau5:07
xG 0.17–0.52 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Subban13:40
xG 0.83–0.60 (58%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- Irwin – Bitetto12:00
xG 0.37–0.71 (35%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Josi – Ekholm14:10
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).