Sun, Dec 31, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 423 | 17 | 535 |
| CBJ | 012 | 06 | 03 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:22TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:49TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 7:53TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 8:45TBLCory ConacherAssists: Yanni Gourde, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 10:36TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.06 xG5–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:19CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:16TBLJake Dotchin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:42TBLCedric Paquette: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:44CBJJordan Schroeder: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:37TBLBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P2 17:00CBJSonny Milano: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P3 6:39CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:44CBJSonny Milano: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Conacher – Gourde8:57
xG 0.93–0.13 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point10:05
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov10:41
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Brown – Paquette7:21
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin12:01
xG 1.06–0.37 (74%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Coburn – Girardi9:35
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stralman – Sergachev9:04
xG 0.37–0.18 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Panarin – Dubois2:47
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Calvert – Sedlak – Bjorkstrand2:44
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sedlak – Motte – Bjorkstrand2:18
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Anderson – Panarin – Dubois5:16
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski12:47
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Savard2:22
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Harrington10:44
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).