Sun, Dec 31, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Islanders 1, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 07 | 113 | 128 |
| COL | 112 | 423 | 113 | 648 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31COLPatrik NemethAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Sven Andrighetto · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 5:25COLMatt NietoGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 12:30COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Colin Wilson, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 16:35COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
- P2 18:24COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P3 12:24NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Brock Nelson, Scott Mayfield · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 13:04COLErik JohnsonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:51COLTyson Jost: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:53NYIBrock Nelson: Holding2 min
- P2 8:07COLCarl Soderberg: Kneeing2 min
- P2 15:20NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:35NYIMathew Barzal: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P2 16:35NYIMathew Barzal: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P2 18:15NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:48COLAndrei Mironov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Barzal3:32
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Eberle – Cizikas – Lee3:03
xG 0.02–0.01 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Quine – Beauvillier4:18
xG 0.16–0.15 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal7:50
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock4:42
xG 0.11–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech12:01
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield3:45
xG 0.10–0.04 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Bourque – Jost9:08
xG 0.98–0.18 (84%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:34
xG 0.58–0.02 (96%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto10:54
xG 0.87–0.35 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Andrighetto7:51
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov9:40
xG 2.28–0.09 (96%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Mironov – Girard7:48
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Barberio – Nemeth14:27
xG 0.55–0.46 (55%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).