Tue, Jan 2, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 48 | 111 | 525 |
| PHI | 010 | 18 | 010 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:35PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 10:29PHIJordan WealAssists: Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:09PITRyan ReavesGWGAssists: Riley Sheahan, Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 11:49PITConor ShearyAssists: Ian Cole · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 13:26PITTom KuhnhacklAssists: Riley Sheahan, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 14:04PITJamie OleksiakPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:52PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:09PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:52PITJake Guentzel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:08PITJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:08PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:57PITTom Kuhnhackl: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:17PHIMichael Raffl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:25PITIan Cole: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Sheary12:32
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Reaves – Sheahan – Kuhnhackl3:19
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 2–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin10:38
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Reaves – Kuhnhackl – Rowney3:14
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin8:45
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Maatta8:56
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta5:31
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Weise – Laughton6:45
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl11:38
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Weal – Patrick8:57
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny12:28
xG 0.20–0.54 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Manning – Gudas16:12
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov12:13
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- MacDonald – Hagg14:39
xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).