Tue, Jan 2, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
San Jose Sharks 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 215 | 18 | 433 |
| MTL | 011 | 18 | 012 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:57SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Justin Braun, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 11:27SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Kevin Labanc · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 16:07MTLAndrew ShawPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
- P2 19:50SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 1:13SJSTimo MeierAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:11SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:19SJSDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:22SJSJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:50MTLJoe Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:23MTLPaul Byron: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 14:54SJSMikkel Boedker: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:49SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game2 min
- P2 18:05MTLJoe Morrow: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:44MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Donskoi – Hertl8:28
xG 0.83–0.20 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier11:23
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Labanc11:12
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Ward – Sorensen – Karlsson7:01
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:05
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Burns – Dillon13:51
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Ryan10:48
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Danault – Hudon10:07
xG 0.46–0.05 (91%)attempts 16–2goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Shaw – Carr7:14
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Galchenyuk – Lehkonen – Drouin9:33
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher11:37
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Benn12:09
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Alzner – Jerabek14:28
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
- Schlemko – Morrow10:24
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).