Tue, Jan 2, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 02 | 115 | 126 |
| MIN | 113 | 319 | 19 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:21MINMatt CullenAssists: Daniel Winnik, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 1:56MINMatt CullenGWGAssists: Marcus Foligno, Gustav Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 14:31MINEric StaalAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–3
- P2 17:10MINEric StaalAssists: Tyler Ennis, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 3:40FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 16:55MINCharlie CoyleENAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:41FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 3:27MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:27FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:48MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:14MINDaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Barkov5:53
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Brickley2:34
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Brickley – Trocheck – Malgin3:23
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- McGinn – Brickley – McCann3:37
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Pysyk6:23
xG 0.18–0.27 (41%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- McCoshen – Ekblad5:01
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Matheson5:59
xG 0.17–0.33 (35%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Ennis – Zucker9:37
xG 1.37–0.07 (95%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Koivu – Granlund – Eriksson Ek14:22
xG 0.60–0.10 (86%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Winnik – Foligno9:47
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Parise – Stewart – Coyle9:56
xG 0.22–0.06 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:34
xG 0.98–0.14 (88%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon19:49
xG 1.24–0.46 (73%)attempts 22–16goals 3–1
- Prosser – Olofsson14:16
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).