Tue, Jan 2, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 5, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 16 | 415 | 533 |
| EDM | 014 | 06 | 012 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:21LAKAndy AndreoffGWGAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Oscar Fantenberg · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 1:36LAKTrevor LewisPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Tyler Toffoli · Deflected, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 3:59LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 4:34LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–0
- P3 18:28LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.07 xG5–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:07EDMBrandon Davidson: Interference2 min
- P1 10:34LAKKurtis MacDermid: Holding2 min
- P2 6:09LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:06EDMAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:55EDMPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 19:55EDMPatrick Maroon: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 19:55LAKDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:40LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Mitchell – Andreoff7:50
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Pearson9:19
xG 0.36–0.22 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Shore6:19
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Toffoli – Kempe6:48
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort4:47
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Forbort – Fantenberg6:58
xG 0.30–0.07 (82%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Martinez – Doughty2:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – McDavid – Puljujarvi8:17
xG 0.79–0.11 (88%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins7:34
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi3:11
xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula5:23
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell13:00
xG 1.13–0.57 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Larsson – Nurse13:30
xG 0.74–0.52 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Davidson – Klefbom10:08
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).