Sun, Apr 8, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 211 | 19 | 16 | 426 |
| BOS | 18 | 09 | 126 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22FLAHenrik BorgstromAssists: Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:18BOSDavid BackesAssists: Kevan Miller, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 16:46FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Jared McCann, Jamie McGinn · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:33FLAMaxim MaminGWGAssists: Denis Malgin, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 9:54BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 18:11FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jared McCann · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:24BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:39FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:27BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:40FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:20BOSCharlie McAvoy: Elbowing2 min
- P3 8:22FLAJonathan Huberdeau: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:22
xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Brickley – Malgin – Mamin4:04
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- McGinn – Vatrano – Borgstrom5:29
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Trocheck2:07
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weegar – McCoshen10:47
xG 0.16–0.25 (40%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad15:08
xG 1.07–1.17 (48%)attempts 13–27goals 2–1
- Pysyk – Matheson15:16
xG 0.26–0.75 (25%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:46
xG 0.91–0.77 (54%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Backes – Krejci – DeBrusk8:16
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Wingels – Schaller – Acciari7:19
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
- Gionta – Donato – Heinen7:22
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy13:38
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Chara – Miller3:07
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Krug – McAvoy3:08
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).