Thu, Jan 4, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 115 | 17 | 010 | 03 | 1 | 235 |
| TOR | 110 | 111 | 07 | 00 | 2 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:37TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Connor Carrick, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:08SJSBrenden DillonAssists: Brent Burns, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 12:40TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 18:18SJSChris TierneyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 2. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 3. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. TOR Patrick Marleau stopped
- 6. SJS Kevin Labanc scored
- 7. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 8. SJS Joonas Donskoi stopped
- 9. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 10. SJS Brent Burns stopped
- 11. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 12. SJS Chris Tierney stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:02TORNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02SJSJoe Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:53SJSMelker Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P1 4:58TORMorgan Rielly: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 10:56TORConnor Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:11TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:36SJSDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:18SJSBrent Burns: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 1:32TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:10TORMitch Marner: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Meier12:23
xG 1.04–0.22 (83%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Labanc6:23
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Ward – Sorensen – Karlsson6:25
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Couture – Donskoi – Hertl9:54
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon17:58
xG 1.25–0.39 (76%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Ryan6:30
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun15:42
xG 0.48–0.83 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews9:48
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:32
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Martin – Brown – Gauthier5:19
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri10:01
xG 0.20–0.87 (19%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gardiner – Rielly2:22
xG 0.01–0.02 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Rielly – Borgman2:45
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick13:28
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).