Thu, Jan 4, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 18 | 217 | 431 |
| PHI | 111 | 414 | 17 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:38PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 15:37NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Nick Leddy, Dennis Seidenberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:36PHIMichael RafflAssists: Ivan Provorov, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 2:16PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Robert Hagg, Jordan Weal · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 6:24PHIIvan ProvorovPPAssists: Nolan Patrick, Brandon Manning · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 12:26NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Shane Prince, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.23 xG2–4
- P2 13:56PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 6:02NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 14:35NYIRyan PulockAssists: Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 19:47PHIIvan ProvorovENAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:43NYIDennis Seidenberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:04NYIShane Prince: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:04PHITravis Konecny: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:09NYITanner Fritz: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 5:56NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:56PHISean Couturier: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:22PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:50NYIAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:50PHISean Couturier: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:50NYIJosh Bailey: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 19:10PHIScott Laughton: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:10NYIJordan Eberle: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:10NYIAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:10PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:10NYICal Clutterbuck: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal7:29
xG 0.22–0.33 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas6:16
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:22
xG 0.25–0.49 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Nelson – Prince – Fritz5:16
xG 0.01–0.29 (4%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hickey – Pulock15:58
xG 0.67–0.65 (51%)attempts 21–14goals 2–1
- Mayfield – Pelech12:35
xG 0.20–0.56 (27%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
- Seidenberg – Leddy17:29
xG 0.61–0.96 (39%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny9:24
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Patrick11:40
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl9:38
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Weise – Laughton – Leier5:14
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg16:43
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
- Gostisbehere – Provorov14:17
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas14:09
xG 0.48–0.49 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).