Thu, Jan 4, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 113 | 016 | 05 | 0 | 145 |
| MTL | 010 | 115 | 011 | 02 | 1 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:20MTLMax PaciorettyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 1:04TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MTL Paul Byron scored
- 2. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 3. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 4. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 5. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 6. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:57MTLAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:41MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:58TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:53TBLChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Point12:01
xG 1.17–0.60 (66%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov14:20
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
- Killorn – Conacher – Gourde9:00
xG 0.12–0.55 (18%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette8:32
xG 0.52–1.04 (33%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin15:45
xG 1.31–0.39 (77%)attempts 26–22goals 0–0
- Coburn – Girardi13:31
xG 0.61–1.18 (34%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Stralman – Sergachev16:59
xG 0.22–0.88 (20%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Shaw – de la Rose8:18
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Lehkonen – Drouin12:11
xG 0.95–0.77 (55%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher11:04
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Danault – Hudon11:28
xG 0.66–0.84 (44%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Morrow14:57
xG 1.23–0.65 (65%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner14:45
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Benn – Jerabek15:37
xG 0.17–1.04 (14%)attempts 8–29goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).