Thu, Jan 4, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 116 | 113 | 113 | 342 |
| DAL | 014 | 312 | 17 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:46NJDBrian BoylePPAssists: Taylor Hall, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 6:18DALAlexander RadulovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 11:07DALBrett RitchiePPAssists: John Klingberg, Alexander Radulov · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 18:11DALTyler SeguinSHAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 19:32NJDTaylor HallAssists: Nico Hischier, Andy Greene · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 9:43DALMattias JanmarkGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal, Alexander Radulov · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 15:59NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:48DALJason Dickinson: Holding2 min
- P1 3:41NJDTaylor Hall: Interference2 min
- P1 13:38NJDSami Vatanen: Interference2 min
- P1 14:18DALAlexander Radulov: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:56DALStephen Johns: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 8:17NJDSami Vatanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:21NJDSami Vatanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:18DALGreg Pateryn: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:22DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bratt – Hischier11:23
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Boyle – Gibbons – Coleman6:05
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Noesen – Wood – Zacha6:47
xG 0.41–0.32 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Zajac – Johansson – Palmieri8:50
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Butcher3:47
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Moore – Vatanen12:14
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Moore4:16
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Shore – Dickinson6:36
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa10:36
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Ritchie10:20
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Radulov – Janmark8:38
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Klingberg – Lindell15:02
xG 0.60–0.61 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Methot – Johns12:18
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn15:32
xG 0.53–0.68 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).