Thu, Jan 4, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 011 | 016 | 034 |
| COL | 014 | 111 | 17 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:48COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Tyson Jost, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 18:25COLMatt NietoAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:35COLA.J. Greer: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:22CBJSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P1 18:35CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:35COLBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:41CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:23CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:18COLAlexander Kerfoot: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:23COLErik Johnson: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Jenner – Bjorkstrand5:57
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Calvert – Sedlak – Milano3:29
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Panarin – Dubois7:51
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Calvert – Sedlak – Bjorkstrand4:19
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski16:53
xG 1.02–0.55 (65%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Savard – Nutivaara14:32
xG 0.52–0.11 (83%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Harrington9:07
xG 0.11–0.21 (33%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Nieto9:40
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Bourque – Jost7:57
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:15
xG 0.46–0.51 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Greer6:43
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Nemeth11:57
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Nemeth2:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard3:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).