Thu, Jan 4, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 1, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 02 | 015 | 113 | 04 | 1 | 134 |
| EDM | 013 | 18 | 011 | 02 | 2 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:58EDMKris RussellAssists: Connor McDavid, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 0:18ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 2. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 3. EDM Michael Cammalleri scored
- 4. ANA Rickard Rakell scored
- 5. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 6. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:45EDMDarnell Nurse: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:13ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:24ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:19EDMMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:51ANARyan Getzlaf: Holding2 min
- P3 19:54ANAAntoine Vermette: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:38ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Getzlaf – Rakell14:12
xG 0.91–0.56 (62%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Henrique – Roy – Ritchie8:59
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Grant – Wagner – Shaw6:05
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:55
xG 0.21–0.64 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm16:06
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Montour13:23
xG 0.51–0.20 (71%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler17:36
xG 0.70–1.15 (38%)attempts 18–23goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:46
xG 0.44–0.05 (89%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Nugent-Hopkins – Strome12:56
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Khaira6:21
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Slepyshev – Draisaitl – Caggiula11:53
xG 0.59–1.25 (32%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Klefbom15:45
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Sekera – Benning11:54
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse17:58
xG 0.38–1.13 (25%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).